when will china invade australia

Firstly, China has insufficient capacity to wage long distance assault operations. At any rate Australia is in trouble. You can donate through PayPal or credit card via the button below, or donate via bank transfer: BSB: 062500; A/c no: 10495969. If a more solid outcome and strategic footprint air- and sea-bases in Indonesia is enabled by the PRC beyond the current military outposts of Pakistan and Myanmar the danger/s for Australia exponentially increase and an invasion would be more likely. Power Disparities and Paradoxical Conflict Outcomes. International Interactions, Philadelphia: Taylor and Francis, 1986,12, 315-342. And we are afraid of China? I must admit I skimmed this piece. It's a position intended to ensure Australia's voice is heard in US halls of power, policy making and strategic thought. Even if an invasion of mainland Australia is a remote possibility, displaying an enhanced capacity to defend the mainland is an effective deterrent in its own right. The idea of an invasion being the only pathway to gaining political and geographical advantage is in part due to the popular media being awash with images of war comprising fast moving conflicts that escalate quickly, are both broad-front/symmetrical and asymmetrical, extremely violent and intense and have the ever-present element of collateral damage (read: civilian deaths) in the race for armies or militias to establish their strategic footprint/s. How are we going to survive if we deliberately ignore threats for fear of offending someone? Also I have no understanding at all of international politics. The four major challenges Australia faces in 2022 There are major challenges the world will have to face this year over and above COVID-19, the first being the management of the rise of China. From a geo-strategic perspective it is unlikely that this would happen in the next decade as China does not have the support facilities in the region for a limited invasion as the most vulnerable impact points, the west/northwest of Australia would not be able to be adequately reinforced after an initial foray. He said despite widespread panic at the time, and post-war mythologising, even in World War II we were in no serious danger of occupation. China has over 1 Billion people !!! The short-tempered outburst by Senator Palmer on the Australian Broadcasting Corporation Q&A program, to be sure was just that, an outburst. We use your sign-up to provide content in the ways you've consented to and improve our understanding of you. The truth of the matter resides in the history of the US as per WWII being a European war until the bombing of Pearl Harbor forced the US to face the realities of the conflict, and the undeniable reality is that an Australia-China military collision would not necessarily be an urgent priority for the US. After all its our back yard. The Amnesia Express had a good line in a lyric of a song about defining the difference of Peace to the present state of readiness to war. Its how you play with your mind not weapons that matters. These are among the powerful predictions the world looks set to face as it comes to grip with new powers, financial slowdowns and emerging economies. Sun 27 Feb 2022 00.26 EST First published on Sat 26 Feb 2022 19.57 EST The prime minister, Scott Morrison, has announced that Australia will provide funds for "lethal aid" to Ukraine's war. The Chinese are already quietly invading us in droves, buying up huge amounts of property and investment. This time has taken two decades and it is now in that place, or in simpler terms, China is now a major actor on the world stage and moreover, one that is prepared to back its position/s up with military force if need be. Moreover, China has continued to exercise its perceived regional rights with relative impunity; and the PRC recently rejected a US proposal to decrease tensions over the disputed territories,[14] and these are further signs the days of absolute control for the US are over. News By Simon Green Assistant Editor (Digital) 15:20, 15 FEB 2019 Updated 20:17, 15 FEB 2019 Video Loading United Australia Party leader warns of Chinese takeover [2] Hugh White. Your email address will not be published. Chinese support- and/or operated-bases are in their infancy and this will be the case for at least another decade and therefore an invasion would not be strategically viable. We also may change the frequency you receive our emails from us in order to keep you up to date and give you the best relevant information possible. Thats the bizarre claim used in a political advert from the United Australia Party. Tensions between Australia and its biggest trading partner, China, drastically deteriorated last year when Prime Minister Scott Morrison called for an independent inquiry into the origins of. War with China is just a silly sensationalist drivel. This is the stupidity of permitting foreign governments to purchase our farming land and mineral assets. In the process of the IRs momentum the British government had to meet ever greater demands from its populace. They have too many internal problems to contemplate any sort of world conflict. The two-minute-long advert suggests that the Chinese government has been working with Australian politicians in buying businesses on the countrys shores. [11] An historical comparison can be made here which befits the Wests pattern, and in doing so offers the growth of China another perspective and the inherent dangers for the West. Reduction of our options, in order to protect a Foreign Interest and our consideration of the other options open to us, is most likely. This was followed by a further dictum from his colleague Senator Jacqui Lambie speaking about the potential of a Chinese invasion and whats more, she has refused to withdraw her comment. Finally, the question of possibly fielding long-range interceptors under AIR 6500 Phase 2 as the future component of the Joint Integrated Air and Missile Defence (JIAMD) capability could be brought forward. Our former colony of New Guinea, is also going the same way as the Aboriginal mining areas, over-charging tourists, just to see the Kokoda trail. There is much China could gain from such an overt act as part of a grand strategy of preponderance; to force Australia to rethink its US ties; to gain greater access to Australias resources upon which it depends; as a signal to regional enemies that it is the force to be reckoned with; and to show regional allies it is the most powerful and dynamic actor. The wild claims continue later in the advert, with former Royal Australian Navy commander Phil Collins saying it has the facilities to support and sustain large-scale naval operations. Roger October 23, 2015 at 2:28 pm. The World Economy. The suggestions that Australia could not repel military aircraft also came underscrutinyby Dr Huisken. However, the relevant issue is invasions gain results which inevitably have to be repelled, defused or accepted. The Transformation of China. The Agenda. Analysts say the threat of China on Australia's doorstop isn't about invasion; it's about much more immediate short-term concerns, such as Beijing improving intelligence gathering and monitoring. 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Could you imagine well funded gorilla network in Australia. Note: Dr Alexey Muraviev isAssociate Professor of National Security and Strategic Studies at Curtin University. The heretofore hidden fears that reside alongside the mercantile arena of profit and the food bowl debates within the Asia-Pacific (A-P) have evolved into the public arena. Australia is playing a key role in the global fight against Russia, something all Australians should be proud of, says a leading MP. This raises again the question of alliance obligation, and the subsequent need by Washington to make it very clear to China that an attack on Australia will trigger an allied response. [10] Angus Madisson. 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However, and crucially for Australia, underpinning this is America does not want to modify its approach to the region; and wishes the status quo to remain within the post-WWII and Cold War parameters. And that was when I was a child !! One thing is for sure, China does not need to invade Australia. Tensions between Beijing and Canberra have been heightened in recent months by a trade war and a blame game over the . particularly June Bullivant. What Australia can do to better improve its immediate security and harmony is withdraw from the UN Refugee Accords, and accept only those who meet strict selection, suitability and civility criteria. Peace is said to be Wars opposite and everwhile the arming for war denies peace any opportunity of reality except in the mind of man. Great article, and I had a nice chuckle at some of the sentiments of those who took the time to comment. Chinas parallel with Germany before WWI. The Sydney Morning Herald, Sydney: Fairfax Media, 20 August, 2014. http://www.smh.com.au/comment/chinas-parallel-with-germany-before-wwi-20140820-10631j.html. On April 25, the symbolic date of Anzac Day, when Australia honors its war dead, newly appointed Defense Minister Peter Dutton said a conflict with China over Taiwan shouldn't "be discounted,". Have seen the legal document but forget where to locate it. Who should take the blame for the current dismal outlook. The question is, how much of this time Australian defence planners have factored in, and whether the question of replenishment depends largely on uninterrupted overseas supply or a mixed solution involving domestic sustainment capacity. If the Chinese could not bring fuel, spare parts and munitions to these airfields the aircraft would immediately be candidates for the war museum in Canberra.. The question that can now be asked and the one that returns to the core of this article, is will this result in an invasion of Australia? Given the absence of layered air defence capability (AD) in the ADFs order of battle, including long-range AD systems, in theory it can wage long-range missile strikes against our key land targets (defence installations, strategic surveillance communication facilities, possibly large population centres), even though it may risk escalation to an open confrontation with the United States. Francis Fukuyama would deem the collapse of communism to be the end of history,[7] which translates in simpler terms, to liberal-democracy as a form of government winning against communism. However, this does not necessarily equate to protecting Australia per se. Maybe her comment was not as stupid as everybody thought at the time. Australia must be willing to invade the Solomon Islands and topple its government if that's what is necessary to stop a proposed security pact between China and the Pacific nation going ahead . All of these instances have had the enduring effect of proving Western liberal-democracy is the most venerable and robust of all governments and governance. As insulted as the Chinese community feels toward Palmer, his outburst was attributed to his frustration with the legal system, his dealings with some Chinese business people and when it all imploded, he drew in other societal elements. Have a friend who was Ambassador to China and it would not take much to regain their respect. Links to YouTube, Facebook, Twitter and other services inserted in the comment text will be automatically embedded. By Alan Dupont. Selling more and more of our assets (mineral companies and FREEHOLD farming land) is moving the country to a checkmate position with China controling its assets. Recently the Obama administration has gone to great lengths to reassure Australia it is committed to keeping a geo-strategic and political presence in the region with a recent visit by Secretary of State Kerry and a reiteration of wanting to rebalance Asia. Australia also has rare earths and God knows what PNG has still yet? China must be offered a bigger role in the Asia-Pacific. The Age, Melbourne: Fairfax Publishing Ltd, 10 June, 2014, 16. Although detailed information about national stockpiles of munitions, critical spares, and fuel is not wholly open-source it is logical to expect that the ADF holds sufficient resources to engage in high tempo large scale operations for a certain period of time. Your contribution to help with the running costs of this site will be gratefully accepted. The Chinese government has set about actively creating a burgeoning middle-class in part to have a greater tax base, to extract people from gruelling, chronic poverty and to in general raise the living standards of citizens. It is pertinent to ask what will drive such an outcome. The question of fuel deposits, which has to be replenished regularly, remains. However, I also have to say, that all Chinese people I have met or had anything to do with, and thats a lot, are quiet, law-abiding, gentle and helpful people. Chuck in a few bucks and see just how far it goes! With all of the above-mentioned commentary, and in particular because Monk has drawn into the mix an historical pivot, there is a need to examine these issues further to highlight where the fear comes from, and where it has its roots. The Royal Australian Navy ship HMAS Parramatta. I just wonder why the author thinks that Americas debt would be a protective factor in preventing a conflict with China. Blunt threats made in Chinese mainstream media, and more recent remarks by an Australian senator- that the ADF is unlikely to last even a few days in a high-end conflict with China - warrant yet another examination of Australias strategic circumstances and the likelihood of an attack on mainland Australia. Despite its massive standing force, including noticeable improvements to its amphibious assault element, it is not fit to conduct a successful cross-strait amphibious invasion of nearby Taiwan (Chinas number one strategic and operational priority), let alone engage in a long distance strategic hypothetical such as an invasion of Australia. The schemata upon which the West has developed its societal modality is one of a thriving and burgeoning middle-class, and this has been encouraged in other societies by the West in order for the West to meet its own needs, and in doing this the West has had other societies contribute to its progress. On the other hand, China deploys a comprehensive capability to engage in protracted offensive cyber operations against its adversaries. China snubs US proposal at ASEAN. The Age. From this point it is obvious that if China were able to establish a greater military presence in Indonesia exercising control over Australia would be more able to be achieved although this would more likely be the strangulation of access to shipping- and air-traffic in the region, regardless of whether it is military or mercantile, as this tactic would essentially render Australia fiscally and militarily decapitated in the region. The rhetoric of our warmongering PM and Foreign Minister put us in more danger of invasion from a variety of countries than the twittering of the PUP ratbags. But its most chilling claim is around a small airport built in West Australias remote northwest. When it comes to assessing a countrys fighting potential on a comparative basis, a number of major contributing factors needs to be taken into account. Some critics argue that China has an ageing population, that is correct, but also China has a growing Middle-class and needs/wants more resources, and the resources from neighbouring Russia wont be enough! A significant part of the reason the rise of China, and the subsequent actions of the PRC government have become so chilling, and the reason the invasion word was used by Senator Lambie, is twofold. The present Lambie redneck doctrine of Invasion by China or Indonesia harks back to Menzies and his yellow peril election Arrows and like the Menzies arrows Lambies redneck doctrine is just a ploy to stay elected. It would be the nightmare from hell to contain. Australians must face the fact that China is determined to invade Taiwan and in a China-dominated region we won't enjoy the freedoms we assume are our birthright. Another Century of War? But the US has strategic energy interests in Australia so perhaps they will not abandon us or sell us out with their own self interests are at stake. But if Russia, China and India decide to start trading oil in their own currencies or in gold then the petrodollar becomes just one of several major currencies. Australia has been warned to expect a Chinese "strategic surprise" in 2022. Perhaps of equal importance in the next decade America will have declined to the point of being non-interventionist, at least in the eyes of the PRC. Kaye Lee, Nail hit firmly on the head. Another important contributing factor, which a possible adversary is likely to take into account, is the combined fighting potential of the ADF. Gosh and golly. But the YouTube video has been met with criticism from experts. As for Jacqui Lambie how could anyone believe her statements or take them too seriously shes a very loose cannon, and I wouldnt be surprised if the PUP somehow bids her goodbye in the not too distant future. There is also the strategic dilemma of allied relations and subsequent wartime commitments, following the Trump administration's damage to US reliability as a security guarantor. Is Australia really in danger of being invaded? He questionedwhatthey would do after landing in Pilbara. Australians must never forget how the 14 conditions delivered to Australia by China would change this nation forever. Editorial warns Australia may suffer further economic pain. Note that preparation is NOT the same as Shannon Brandao on LinkedIn: U.S., UK and Australia carry out China-focused air drills [4] http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-19/japan-expands-their-military-amid-growing-tensions-with-china/5672932 Australia Network News, 19 August,, 2014. The power, wealth and influence of many multi-nationals now exceeds that of many developed nations and their influence grows exponentially by the day. China has moved in a truly global direction and is on a pathway that was triggered, and then further stimulated, by Premier Deng Xiaoping who started the process in the mid-1980s. There is an accommodation that will need to be given over to China and a significant point to focus upon is to observe an historical element, and to realize within it lies a chilling and changing demographic. Strategic defence expert Ron Huisken labelled it sensational nonsense and rather tacky scaremongering. [7] See Francis Fukuyama. Long March Out of China. The Australian, Melbourne: Murdoch Media, 19 August, 2014, 9. I mightily admire Peter Singer however if you take a look internationally things are moving in a crazy variety of directions all at once. I wonder why the Chinese are bulding the bases in the south china sea now. I think we are in for a few surprises as the old economic and political models falter and global warming becomes a real issue. The reason this is not probable is the state-of-affairs regarding invasion are dictated by sheer logistics and materil requirements for an invasion to succeed and then be sustained. War is inevitable. Jacqui Lambie warns that a Chinese invasion of Australia is a frightening possibility. And moreover, for the US Australia would not be the only game in town. Reflecting on this statement, a significant part of the reason the US lost the Vietnam War is that it was not the only game in town[13] as it was beset with domestic civil strife, had ongoing issues with the Soviet Union-Cuba alliance, and had European Cold War commitments as well as the space race. An Australia-China conflict will also adhere to the not the only game in town principle for the US and for Australians to believe that the US will see a conflict in the A-P region as important enough to warrant an immediate response is simply wrong. Australia cut. Their is a greater chance of Having a War with Japan again then ever having one with China. Their own currencies gain prestige, giving their governments more political and military muscle. This is where I place Australia with regard to China (providing it stays on its current foreign policy/policies pathway). Hence, it can attack Australia by means of a sophisticated cyber offensive campaign, even without a formal declaration of hostile intent. For fear of offending someone of those who took the time to comment some the! A silly sensationalist drivel declaration of hostile intent relevant issue is invasions gain results which have... Strategic surprise & quot ; strategic surprise & quot ; in 2022 debt would be protective. 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