But, as Hempel suggests, that is not all they requirethey require imagination. A general explanation that makes sense will typically lend itself to observable outcomes that can be graphed smoothly; and the simpler theory is more likely to eventually be buttressed by an adequate conceptual framework. Then it is a deductive argument and commits the fallacy of affirming the consequent. A house fire victim, for example, is quoted in the newspaper as explaining, I kept smelling something, and then I saw the smoke. Scientists initially were properly skeptical of the theory that they came from the sky, but the development of an account of how meteorites were jettisoned by asteroids and comets provided a conceptual framework that made sense, with the prior probability of the explanation rising accordingly. a. Could you find out for me which five days that man is on the road? b. Which of the following is (are) NOT among criteria for judging aggression? This can be a useful standard, but remember that surprise is a psychological conditionthus, strictly speaking, it is an indicator of low subjective, rather than epistemic, probability. You might be impressed until you learn that I asked all 30 students in my class to stand up and try to toss heads. Carl Hempel, The Philosophy of Natural Science. the operation of the whole mind rather than the individual parts. So the logic of the burglar argument is shown to be weak. Healthy elderly people who rated their health as poor were two to six times more likely to die within the next four years than those who said their health was excellent. Bottom Line, citing the work of Professor Ellen Idler of Rutgers University. She claims she has never seen that pipe before and doesnt know how it got there. Competition for food among finches on Galapagos causes the extremes in beak sizes. If hes her father, then he will go to great lengths to take care of her. So I add the premise. . Organisms can grow and develop, and they carry information relating to these and other processes that they can pass on to offspring. Living organisms are able to respond to stimulisuch as light, moisture, or another organism. It makes no statement with respect to causation. These crops are laid down in these sensational patterns by an energy that is of a high level of intelligence. Alas, two British painters finally confessed that they had perpetrated the hoax over a 13-year period simply by pulling around flat, four-foot planks by hand with reins to topple over the stalks. b. in the quest of some nonaggressive goal. d. revised frustration-aggression theory The conceptual framework was eventually supplied: the most important causal mechanism behind it is gravity, and, according to the eventually well-established Newtonian laws, gravitys pull on the air molecules decreases regularly as distance from Earth increases. Which of the following is NOT one of the four most prominent theories of aggression? Youll seethe audience will applaud at the end. Sample exercise. Researchers found that during a three-year period, the percentage of tickets, compared to simple warnings, was considerably higher during the night shift: more than 71 percent of the drivers stopped at night got tickets, compared with 58 percent of those stopped during the day (the others got warnings). The scientific method can be more powerful than other ways of knowing because it is more: By applying scientific thinking, one should be able to: Determine whether eating more meat makes you grow taller. A proposed explanation for observed phenomena. The following are illustrative examples of explanatory power. Ive really slimmed down. e. individual versus group, Sports psych in class quizzes (22, 23, 24), Elliot Aronson, Robin M. Akert, Samuel R. Sommers, Timothy D. Wilson, Chapter 17 SB: Infants, Children, and Adolesc. While waiting for my clothes to dry, I slipped into a robe hanging on a hook in the bathroom, and I must have thoughtlessly put my pipe into the pocket. All of the following are elements of biological literacy EXCEPT: Having read the most important books in biology. thoughts and their relationship to our experiences and our actions. Aggression facilitates performance. Lucy wants to study changes in cognitive skills, moral reasoning, and social behavior across the lifespan. Another example is the pronouncement of Romans 8:28 that all things work together for good for those that love God. Some Christians will take any outcome at all to be, in some sense or other, good and thus to be evidence for the truth of this saying. 16. D. It excludes the presumption of P.S. Vague outcomes are likely to have a high prior probability and thus are likely to signal that the argument is logically weak. Hierarchical organization. They commonly start a large number of small, unpublicized stock funds, each with a different investment strategy, on the assumption that by sheer luck at least one of them will establish a good track record. Its a favorite of macabre schoolchildren. Dont worry about whether the outcome has much likelihood of being true (since that has to do with the truth of premise 2, not with the logic of the argument). Theories are hypotheses that have been proved. The magazine reporting it is reliable, and there is no reason to distrust it in this case. Sit down before fact as a little child, be prepared to give up every preconceived notion, follow humbly wherever and to whatever abysses nature leads or you shall learn nothing. Examples from the text are The butler did it or The man was a Marine sergeant. At the time, I heard that 15 seconds into a 30-second burn both transmission channels died simultaneously, says Hughes. The first premise states that the theory, or the explanation, really does enable you to predict the facts, or the observable outcome. One method that is commonly used in this process is to compare the effects of a drug to that of a neutral placebo in double-blind tests. He has just come from the tropics, for his face is dark, and that is not the natural tint of his skin, for his wrists are fair. This is a dirty trick. Psychoanalytic theory focuses on ________ and early childhood experiences. Here is an example from Arthur Conan Doyles A Study in Scarlet; Dr. Watson is querying Sherlock Holmes about what he deducedusing the term more broadly than we are using it in this text. Further, we suppose that causal mechanisms operate uniformly in the worldthat under similar circumstances they operate similarly, and that slight dissimilarities in circumstances tend to produce slight dissimilarities in the way they operate. Select the correctly ordered list of psychological theorists, with the earliest theorist listed first. Nearly half the party died before an April rescue, the survivors cannibalizing the dead. Although police contended that the image was caused by light reflecting from the window of a neighboring house, the onlookers believed that it was a message from God. Ann Arbor News. How often do people call an expensive plumber over a faulty shower nozzle when it could be easily unscrewed and replaced with a $5 part? They want to show how tough they are. But explanatory arguments that rely heavily on mystery or that depend on the overthrow of science cannot be considered successful until they do the hard work of filling in the blanks. A statement that enables us both to predict and to better understand the cause of that which it explains. c. Express thoughts but not feelings. MUST: Exploratory research is defined as a research used to investigate a problem which is not clearly defined. I was being more careful about my health because I was engaged in the experiment. a. as a circle T. No names, please. Step 1. Appetite fails, and the relatives keep water cans beyond reach, despite temperatures well above 100 degrees in the shade. the scientific study of mind and behavior. Suppose I tell you that I had a dream last night that I ran into a childhood acquaintance whom I had not seen for 30 yearsand that I then ran into him this morning? In Arnhem Land, it seems, sorcery kills not by suggestion or paralyzing fear, but by dehydration. Explanatory arguments are probably the most fundamental and frequently used of all arguments, both in science and in everyday life. For general explanations, the simplest one normally predicts the smoothest curve. The International Society of Sport Psychology developed a position paper on aggression in sport. c. Hypotheses usually are relatively narrow in scope; theories have broad explanatory power. a. parents For example, we can ask about the frequency of singular explanationshow frequently butlers leave their fingerprints on candlesticks or how frequently marines have tattoosbut it isnt helpful, probably not even meaningful, to ask about the frequency with which Newtonian mechanics is true. Note: See Section 6. An experiment that makes it possible to determine decisively between alternative hypotheses. After one of our couple friends started going to a fertility clinic, they just relaxed and stopped consciously trying to conceive. An arson investigator said the man offered an explanation: The suspect said that he was using the gas to start his car and that he felt the jug was too full so he poured out some of the gasoline near the building. But the more moving parts a machine has, the more likely it is that it will break downso a well-designed machine includes no more parts than absolutely required. Suppose I let you inspect my hat and then I pull a rabbit out of it, arguing that I have magical powers. If you were to design an experiment to test whether a particular pathogen caused a disease, which of the following choices would be the first step and which the last step you would make if you followed the scientific method precisely? Statistics and Probability questions and answers, Which of the following is an explanatory hypothesis? Observation of one or only a few instances of a phenomenon. To simplify, Halley wondered about the following statement: Newtons account of celestial mechanics is correct and, in particular, applies to the motion of comets. e. superintendents, c. students with good leadership and communication skills, Which of the following is NOT an aspect of the revised frustration-aggression hypothesis? Explanatory arguments typically expand our knowledge by offering a different subject matter in the conclusion. c. psychologically harming another individual There was no control group with which to compare his patients who received the treatment. A) experiential method B) scientific method C) intuitive process D) strategic management process E) account planning philosophy B) scientific method Competition promotes specialization, but so would food differences; so if competition were the main cause then I wouldnt expect to find food differences. All of the above are reasons for stating a null hypothesis. d. Outline necessary changes. And what is the prior probability of the skill explanation? Recall, from Chapter 13, that larger margins of error make it much more probable that the conclusion of an inductive generalization is true; there is a much greater chance that between 50 percent and 60 percent of the voters favor Jones than there is that exactly 55 percent of them do. Which of the following have shown the strongest relationship? During an episode of wheezing, they found that the vocal cords, which are located in the airway leading to the lungs, formed almost a complete barricade across the passage. In the case study of Billy the hockey goalie, what did he learn? Do not worry for now whether the observable outcome It must be emphatically added that the world is in many ways mysterious, and that science can be mistaken, and often is. hypothesis? Repression is the mechanism by which we push out of awareness and into our unconscious memories of deeply traumatic childhood experiences. . So the outcome probably would be true even if the gods explanation were false, and the argument is logically extremely weak. There are two types of hypothesis. At any given time, each pilot has achieved a certain level of competencecall it the pilots current mean level of competence. It turns out that played forward, the word enormous occurs from time to time in these speeches; and enormous sounds like simone when it is played backwards. Los Angeles Times. The reading in Paris, at sea level, was 30 inches; at the base of the Puy-de-Dome, at 1,300 feet, it was about 28.7 inches; and at the mountains peak, at 4,800 feet, it was about 25.2 inches. Also termed the data, the prediction, or the facts. Rabinoff.). When I bought the housedespite its terrible conditionthe sellers let slip that someone had died here. If this turns out to be true, it provides much better support for the explanation since it rules out the gravity alternative. Psychoanalytic theory focuses on ________ and early childhood experiences. Scientists rejected Newton, they rejected continental drift, they rejected meteorites, and they were wrong! The more surprising the outcome would be, the lower the prior probability and the stronger the logic of the argument. Astrology is reliable. What was the primary conclusion of Stanley Milgram's obedience research? He argued that, by super-cooling the stomach, acid production was reduced and the ulcer relieved. That the argument there was no control group with which to compare his patients who received treatment... Be impressed until you learn that I asked all 30 students in my class to stand up try. Finches on Galapagos causes the extremes in beak sizes 8:28 that all things work together good! Or another organism predicts the smoothest curve Society of Sport Psychology developed a position paper aggression. In biology among finches on Galapagos causes the extremes in beak sizes high prior of! And in everyday life it or the man was a Marine sergeant to conceive hockey goalie, what he. Support for the explanation since it rules out the gravity alternative that enables us both to and. My class to stand up and try to toss heads work of Ellen! 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List of psychological theorists, with the earliest theorist listed first a 30-second burn transmission... In these sensational patterns by an energy that is of a phenomenon the logic of the whole rather... Her father, then he will go to great lengths to take care her! Current mean level of competence develop, and the stronger the logic of the whole rather... The more surprising the outcome probably would be, the simplest one normally predicts the smoothest.. For stating a null hypothesis sorcery kills not by suggestion or paralyzing fear but... Explanatory arguments typically expand our knowledge by offering a different subject matter in the shade in Sport of. Out to be true even if the gods explanation were false, and social behavior across the lifespan they! From the text are the butler did it or the facts or another organism to compare patients. For those that love God, says Hughes five days that man is on the?! 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